SP Alpha
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 15.2%
- Max Drawdown
- 26.5%
- Trades
- 71
- Win Trades
- 62.0%
- Profit Factor
- 10.10
- Win Months
- 66.9%
About this strategy
System Description The strategy SP Alpha is actually a portfolio of three mutually independent trading strategies. All three are based on daily data, trades are usually days or weeks in the market. The oldest part, created more than eight years ago, is also the longest term investing part of SP Alpha. Trading times are filtered, including seasonal patterns based on a classic trend-following system. Part two of the strategy is based on a systematic approach from Behaivoral Finance. The third part is a by Larry Connors inspired, but further developed "Buy the Dip" tactics. At the end were combined these three subsystems with extensive testing for the optimal allocation of the available capital. Communication & Timing Entry and exit signals are generally sent before market opens. All positions are ordered to the market open or Limit (GTD) See our Blog for more information and historical results: http://spalpha.blogspot.com -----------Copyright Notice----------- A subscription to SP Alpha entitles one (1) person, the subscriber, to take the trades in his own accounts. If you are sharing your account, or any information from this site with others or trading others accounts based on these signals, you are in violation of copyright laws, subject to a penalty of up to $100,000 per incident. In other words, do NOT share any trade signals or commentary with anyone else. If you are trading others accounts you must sign up them up as well. Warning/Disclaimer: No system is 100% perfect and No system can continuously generate successful trades. So is the same with our service. Our emphasis is mainly on capital protection while generating regular income.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 5.0 | -3.6 | 1.2 | ||||||||||
| 2013 | 13.0 | 1.3 | 7.6 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 5.7 | 3.6 | -1.5 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 48.1 |
| 2014 | -12.3 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | -4.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -4.9 |
| 2015 | -9.1 | 6.9 | -5.0 | -1.3 | 1.1 | -3.8 | 4.2 | -8.0 | -5.5 | 13.8 | 2.0 | -3.9 | -10.5 |
| 2016 | -7.5 | 1.1 | 9.3 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.5 | 5.8 | 0.2 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 16.6 |
| 2017 | 3.4 | 5.6 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 29.6 |
| 2018 | 7.8 | -4.5 | -5.6 | 2.9 | 4.4 | -1.3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 0.4 | -9.8 | 3.9 | -12.1 | -6.7 |
| 2019 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 3.3 | -4.3 | 0.0 | -2.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 40.9 | |
| 2020 | 2.0 | -10.4 | 0.5 | -4.7 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 6.5 | 10.8 | -5.0 | 1.4 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 21.0 |
| 2021 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.6 | -4.3 | 7.1 | -0.3 | 4.0 | 33.3 |
| 2022 | -7.8 | -0.9 | 3.8 | -6.2 | -2.4 | -10.0 | 10.3 | 0.8 | -13.0 | 7.4 | 4.3 | -5.9 | -20.4 |
| 2023 | 6.2 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | -3.0 | -2.8 | -1.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 27.4 |
| 2024 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | -2.0 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.9 | -0.8 | 30.0 |
| 2025 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -6.0 | -4.2 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | -1.6 | 4.8 | 17.8 |
| 2026 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -5.0 | 10.1 | 4.5 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 3.0 | -0.5 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 11/21/2012 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $35,000 |
| Age | 169 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 71 |
| # Profitable | 44 |
| % Profitable | 62.0% |
| Avg trade duration | 74.5 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 26.5% |
| drawdown period | Dec 31, 2013 - Feb 09, 2016 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 15.2% |
| Avg win | $5,005 |
| Avg loss | $889 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 10.11 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.67 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.93 |
| Calmar Ratio | 2.18 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.83 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 457.9% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | 153.0% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 15.2% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.2% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 15.3% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 1.4% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.1% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.9% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | — |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 1 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $889 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $5,005 |
| # Winners | 44 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $24,011 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $220,238 |
| Num Months Winners | 113 |
| # Losers | 27 |
| % Winners | 62.0% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 22439 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 167 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 107290.93 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 1788.18 |
| Avg Trade Length | 74.50 |
| Last Trade Ago | 4145 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.97 |
| Treynor Index | 0.04 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.02 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.03 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.03 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.02 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 0.35 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -1.98 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 91.30 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 53.05 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.14 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.64 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 3.24 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.43 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.27 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.58 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.56 |
| df | 52 |
| t | 3.32 |
| p | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.59 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.55 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.58 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 2.54 |
| Sortino ratio | 4.09 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.57 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.59 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.16 |
| Upside SD | 0.28 |
| Downside SD | 0.11 |
| N nonnegative terms | 35 |
| N negative terms | 18 |
| N of observations | 53 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.36 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.43 |
| SD of predictor | 0.22 |
| SD of criterion | 0.27 |
| Covariance | 0.06 |
| r | 0.92 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.12 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.03 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.01 |
| DF error | 51 |
| t(b) | 16.82 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0.52 |
| p(a) | 0.30 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.99 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.26 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.08 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.14 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.38 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.03 |
| Mean | 0.39 |
| SD | 0.26 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.51 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.49 |
| df | 52 |
| t | 3.17 |
| p | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.52 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.51 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 2.46 |
| Sortino ratio | 3.53 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.99 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.55 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.16 |
| Upside SD | 0.26 |
| Downside SD | 0.11 |
| N nonnegative terms | 35 |
| N negative terms | 18 |
| N of observations | 53 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.33 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.39 |
| SD of predictor | 0.21 |
| SD of criterion | 0.26 |
| Covariance | 0.05 |
| r | 0.91 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.12 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.02 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.01 |
| DF error | 51 |
| t(b) | 15.80 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0.34 |
| p(a) | 0.37 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.98 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.26 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.09 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.13 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.35 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.02 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.09 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.11 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.05 |
| Mean | 0.46 |
| SD | 0.30 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.52 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.52 |
| df | 1175 |
| t | 3.23 |
| p | 0.44 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.60 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.45 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.60 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 2.45 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.09 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.37 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.62 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.16 |
| Upside SD | 0.21 |
| Downside SD | 0.22 |
| N nonnegative terms | 636 |
| N negative terms | 540 |
| N of observations | 1176 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.39 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.46 |
| SD of predictor | 0.27 |
| SD of criterion | 0.30 |
| Covariance | 0.07 |
| r | 0.87 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.98 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.08 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.02 |
| DF error | 1174 |
| t(b) | 59.24 |
| p(b) | 0.07 |
| t(a) | 1.10 |
| p(a) | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.95 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.06 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.22 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.47 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.08 |
| Mean | 0.41 |
| SD | 0.31 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.33 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.33 |
| df | 1175 |
| t | 2.83 |
| p | 0.45 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.41 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.26 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.41 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 2.26 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.77 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 6.86 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.60 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.19 |
| Upside SD | 0.20 |
| Downside SD | 0.23 |
| N nonnegative terms | 636 |
| N negative terms | 540 |
| N of observations | 1176 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.35 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.41 |
| SD of predictor | 0.27 |
| SD of criterion | 0.31 |
| Covariance | 0.07 |
| r | 0.87 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.99 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.06 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.02 |
| DF error | 1174 |
| t(b) | 60.94 |
| p(b) | 0.06 |
| t(a) | 0.90 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.96 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.02 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.08 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.21 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.42 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.06 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.04 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 1.30 |
| SD | 0.55 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 2.39 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 2.37 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 1.69 |
| p | 0.43 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.40 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 5.17 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.41 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 5.16 |
| Sortino ratio | 3.51 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 10.48 |
| Upside part of mean | 3.89 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.59 |
| Upside SD | 0.40 |
| Downside SD | 0.37 |
| N nonnegative terms | 77 |
| N negative terms | 54 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.15 |
| Mean of criterion | 1.30 |
| SD of predictor | 0.52 |
| SD of criterion | 0.55 |
| Covariance | 0.27 |
| r | 0.95 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.00 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.16 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.03 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 33.52 |
| p(b) | 0.01 |
| t(a) | 0.63 |
| p(a) | 0.46 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.94 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.06 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.34 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.65 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.30 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.16 |
| Mean | 1.15 |
| SD | 0.55 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 2.10 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 2.08 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 1.48 |
| p | 0.44 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.69 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.88 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.70 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 4.87 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.98 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 9.88 |
| Upside part of mean | 3.81 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.66 |
| Upside SD | 0.39 |
| Downside SD | 0.39 |
| N nonnegative terms | 77 |
| N negative terms | 54 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.01 |
| Mean of criterion | 1.15 |
| SD of predictor | 0.52 |
| SD of criterion | 0.55 |
| Covariance | 0.27 |
| r | 0.95 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.99 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.15 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.03 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 33.85 |
| p(b) | 0.01 |
| t(a) | 0.59 |
| p(a) | 0.47 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.93 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.03 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.05 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.35 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.64 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.16 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.15 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.05 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.06 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.04 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 53 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.87 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.99 |
| Median | 1.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.09 |
| Maximum | 1.27 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.95 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.05 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.15 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.10 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.27 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.35 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.04 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.07 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.19 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.06 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.10 |
| Number of observations | 1176 |
| Minimum | 0.76 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.01 |
| Maximum | 1.10 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.02 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 84 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.07 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.96 |
| Number of outliers high | 105 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.09 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.04 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.58 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.04 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.39 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.03 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 0.88 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.99 |
| Median | 1.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.02 |
| Maximum | 1.10 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.96 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.02 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.04 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.03 |
| Number outliers low | 5 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.04 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.91 |
| Number of outliers high | 3 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.09 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.06 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.04 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.19 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.05 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 7 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.02 |
| Median | 0.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.13 |
| Maximum | 0.14 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.13 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.14 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.11 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 72 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.04 |
| Maximum | 0.25 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.11 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.03 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 8 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.18 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.16 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.10 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.16 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.10 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.13 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.18 |
| Number of observations | 15 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.05 |
| Maximum | 0.25 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.13 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.04 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.13 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.20 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.11 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.13 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.20 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.94 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.20 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 2.96 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -470700704 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 770 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.5% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 1.20 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.52 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 3.70 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 3.79 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 4.54 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 1.39 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.55 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 2.18 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 4.92 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 14.93 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 1.60 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 2.25 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 8.84 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 16.93 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 35.47 |
Trading record
Placed 8 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | long | 235 | May 6, 2015 | May 11, 2015 | $461 |
| SPY | long | 367 | May 1, 2015 | May 5, 2015 | $591 |
| SPY | long | 421 | Mar 24, 2015 | Apr 6, 2015 | ($1,447) |
| SSO | long | 272 | Nov 3, 2014 | Apr 2, 2015 | $690 |
| SPY | long | 524 | Feb 24, 2015 | Mar 17, 2015 | ($739) |
| SPY | long | 350 | Jan 23, 2015 | Feb 4, 2015 | ($662) |
| SPY | long | 495 | Dec 23, 2014 | Jan 22, 2015 | ($2,243) |
| SPY | long | 254 | Dec 10, 2014 | Dec 19, 2014 | $841 |
| SPY | long | 357 | Nov 25, 2014 | Dec 8, 2014 | ($14) |
| SPY | long | 360 | Oct 23, 2014 | Nov 4, 2014 | $2,373 |
| SPY | long | 260 | Sep 24, 2014 | Oct 20, 2014 | ($2,344) |
| SPY | long | 43 | Sep 16, 2014 | Sep 17, 2014 | $92 |
| SPY | long | 556 | Jul 23, 2014 | Aug 12, 2014 | ($3,148) |
| @ES U4 | long | 1 | Aug 1, 2014 | Aug 12, 2014 | $780 |
| SPY | long | 381 | Jun 24, 2014 | Jul 7, 2014 | $864 |
| SPY | long | 181 | Jun 13, 2014 | Jun 18, 2014 | $157 |
| SPY | long | 383 | May 16, 2014 | Jun 5, 2014 | $1,616 |
| SPY | long | 386 | Apr 23, 2014 | May 5, 2014 | ($267) |
| SPY | long | 276 | Apr 8, 2014 | Apr 16, 2014 | $504 |
| @ES M4 | long | 1 | Mar 27, 2014 | Apr 4, 2014 | $2,505 |
| SPY | short | 130 | Apr 1, 2014 | Apr 4, 2014 | ($266) |
| SPY | long | 131 | Mar 28, 2014 | Apr 1, 2014 | $192 |
| SPY | short | 21 | Mar 27, 2014 | Mar 28, 2014 | ($7) |
| SPY | long | 414 | Mar 25, 2014 | Mar 27, 2014 | ($670) |
| SPY | long | 173 | Mar 14, 2014 | Mar 19, 2014 | $447 |
| XIV | long | 326 | Mar 4, 2014 | Mar 18, 2014 | ($68) |
| SPY | long | 353 | Feb 25, 2014 | Mar 7, 2014 | $1,349 |
| SPY | long | 277 | Jan 27, 2014 | Feb 7, 2014 | $38 |
| XIV | long | 360 | Jan 28, 2014 | Feb 7, 2014 | ($1,515) |
| @ES H4 | long | 1 | Jan 23, 2014 | Feb 3, 2014 | ($4,746) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.